Rotorua Property Investors' Association

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Property gauges not positive

The housing market continued to weaken in October, with the ANZ Property Focus reporting the lowest number of sales for any month of October since the series began in 1992.

"The usual spring seasonal lift in activity was absent in October's housing statistics," the report said.

"It's hard to get excited about prospects for 2011."

The ANZ Property Focus uses 10 Gauges to assess the state of the property market and look for signs that will impact on house prices.

Of the 10 gauges only two showed a moderately positive indication house prices may rise - the supply demand balance and the number of consents and house sales.

The supply/demand balance gap was slowly correcting and the number of house sales has "slowed to a near-record low."

Of the remaining eight gauges five were in neutral territory, one points to either neutral of downward movement and two indicate downward movement.

Affordability pointed to either neutral of downward price movement as ANZ said the gauge - a measure of house prices to income - "is improving but there's a long way to go yet."

Both serviceability/indebtedness and liquidity pointed to downward price movements as interest servicing has troughed and households focus on balance sheets mean credit no longer drives the market.

Interest rates, migration, globalisation (an examination of relative house price movements between New Zealand, the UK, US and Australia), mortgagee sales and median rent were all in neutral territory.


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